PolymarxPolymarx
← All Tech markets

Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

Tech

Eventcmtla8q3d506qmv01oskxmymb
Closes in

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Sonnet model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

24H VOLUME

$30.8K

LIQUIDITY

$30.8K

BALANCE

$0

Resolves according to the official outcome source for this event.

Comments (17)

StillWater0 Oct 2

yooo wtf

iutwpfal Oct 2

I'm sorry I'm a nerd too I'm just on cloud nine from the win. You'll bounce back!

0x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks13 Oct 2

Contribute to you, you strong-and-lucky kid.

iutwpfal Oct 2

Thank you, sir!

iutwpfal Oct 2

Thanks for the money, nerds

LeeBong-James Oct 2

Congrats!

iutwpfal Oct 1

I agree, LeeBong, I agree

iutwpfal Oct 1

Sorry I missclicked 300 bucks away enjoy folks

0x3193b23eA9bE85E9E50B0DAf623dA26DA845CC5a-1776878022085 Oct 1

something weird going on here

ithinkthisisgod Oct 1

something weird going on here

LeeBong-James Oct 1

This market pumping on the Google release really means I shouldn't

iutwpfal Sep 30

You really shouldn't

LeeBong-James Sep 30

I would expect the market to have a sharper reason than that

Zabahudin Sep 30

Webdev is out and sonnet is fourth on the list

LeeBong-James Sep 30

Best sonnet model at 1458 and 1470+ is a 80%+ favorite?

iutwpfal Sep 30

ooh i like weird what's weird?

LeeBong-James Sep 29

something weird going on here

1470+

Potential payout$2500.00