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Tech

Human moon landing in 2026?

2%
$2.0M Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Tech

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

3%
$586.5K Vol.•Ends Dec 31, 2026

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

September 300%
December 314%
$284.8K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027
Weather

Natural Disaster in 2026?

21%
$246.8K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Weather

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

2%
$117.2K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?

June 30, 2027?88%
March 31, 202747%
$40.6K Vol.•Jun 30, 2027
Science

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

4%
$24.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 202613%
December 31, 202644%
1 more
$21.8K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028
Weather

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

3%
$20.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Tech

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

9%
$11.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX46%
OpenAI1%
10 more
$10.7K Vol.•Dec 31, 2026
Weather

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

3%
$10.3K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Science

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

3%
$9.0K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

September 3091%
October 3192%
6 more
$8.1K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027
Science

New pandemic before 2028?

18%
$7.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2028

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 202614%
December 31, 202647%
1 more
$5.9K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 20265%
December 31, 202637%
1 more
$5.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

055%
121%
4 more
$4.8K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

175%
224%
4 more
$4.2K Vol.•Dec 31, 2026

How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?

FFewer than 206%
220 to 3454%
2 more
$4.0K Vol.•Mar 31, 2027

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer28%
Hodge Conjecture40%
4 more
$3.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

100-1191%
120-1397%
4 more
$3.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

DDecember 31, 20263%
DDecember 31, 202713%
1 more
$2.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2029

Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?

77.9 or below75%
88.0 – 8.112%
5 more
$2.5K Vol.•Jan 4, 2027

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?

OOpenAI74%
AAnthropic27%
$2.4K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Riemann Hypothesis10%
P versus NP3%
12 more
$2.4K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Precipitation in NYC in September?

<2"2%
2-3"26%
4 more
$1.7K Vol.•Oct 2, 2026
Culture

Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?

100%
$1.7K Vol.•Ends Oct 1, 2026
Politics

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

13%
$1.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?

3500+97%
3300+99%
5 more
$1.4K Vol.•Oct 1, 2026

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑3.5k99%
↑4.5k87%
6 more
$1.4K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

How many Chinook will pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?

MMore than 550,00083%
MMore than 575,00051%
1 more
$1.3K Vol.•Nov 4, 2026

Precipitation in Seattle in September?

<1"23%
1-1.5"31%
5 more
$1.3K Vol.•Oct 1, 2026
Tech

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?

68%
$1.0K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2028
World

New pandemic in 2026?

6%
$821 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Politics

Trump Space Academy begins training by June 30, 2027?

11%
$796 Vol.•Ends Jul 1, 2027
Weather

Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

7%
$660 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?

December 31, 20266%
December 31, 202719%
1 more
$505 Vol.•Jan 1, 2029

Precipitation in London in September?

<30mm49%
30-40mm26%
5 more
$458 Vol.•Oct 1, 2026

Precipitation in Hong Kong in September?

<275mm86%
275-300mm3%
8 more
$432 Vol.•Oct 1, 2026
Weather

Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?

10%
$410 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?

October 31, 202613%
December 31, 202625%
$337 Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

October 3157%
December 3162%
$331 Vol.•-
Weather

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

27%
$257 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many SpaceX launches in September 2026?

<1297%
125%
3 more
$242 Vol.•Oct 1, 2026

Precipitation in Seoul in September?

<75mm83%
75-100mm13%
6 more
$235 Vol.•Oct 1, 2026

FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?

December 31, 202765%
June 30, 202728%
1 more
$223 Vol.•Dec 31, 2027
Weather

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

6%
$133 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027