This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
24H VOLUME
$147.9K
LIQUIDITY
$147.9K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
12beduins 10m ago
The ###s has silenced him most likely he sometimes had valid critique bout israel THATS STRICTLY VERBOTEN
12beduins 13m ago
What happend to Abdoohl awesome comments? Wheres Abdoohl??
WaterFloww 26m ago
great debt will be yours
yungsoleimani 4h ago
Are you illiterate perhaps?
iNeedMoreDollars 4h ago
arguing with yourself award goes to you
pink.impala 15h ago
hes entitled, dont be antisemitic man
yungsoleimani 17h ago
You guys are so right simulated run means war is UPON US ALL, please mog orderbook and demolish Y so i can get cheaper shares.
NoSteinNoGate 17h ago
Is he a politician or why is he making political statements?
adasol 23h ago
Israel atomic energy chief says country will act again if necessary against Iran threat Israel will act again if necessary to ensure its survival in the face of threats from Iran, the head of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission said, adding that the country would not “stand idly by.” “A public threat from the radical regime of the ayatollahs in Iran to destroy the State of Israel is something we cannot ignore,” Moshe Edri said. “Israel cannot, and will not, stand idly by in the face of such a threat. We have acted to ensure our survival, and we will do so again if necessary.”
OnlyInGodWeTrust Sep 15
Take care brother
RealRonnieTyler Sep 15
Amen to that, brother. That regime is way over time and belongs on history's junkyard. My family in Tehran wish for nothing more than to hear the sweet sounds of Israeli and US planes and drones hunting basij, SEPA etc. Bibi is legend 🫡 God bless
NoSteinNoGate Sep 14
Maybe, they have a reason to be actually afraid of Iran now, Interceptors getting sparse
ithinkthisisgod Sep 14
at this point buying yes is free money
0xDcEf6C9FdA1CF0B7e6170DC7Ea2D5E55373bfF3A-1760086171716 Sep 11
"Houthis seize key Red Sea island, complete takeover of Bab el-Mandeb area, says official" - Times Of Israel News
pink.impala Sep 11
So bibi is literally pure evil, and now he just admitted that pure evil struck on both 911 n oct 7.. interesting 🤔
pink.impala Sep 11
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: On September 11th, America was hit by pure evil. On October 7th, Israel was hit by it again.
OnlyInGodWeTrust Sep 9
Israel does not target civilians. I'd rather spend months in the safe room, as long as the Iranian regime is destroyed.
qizhan Sep 9
imaging your apartment under the bomb
iutwpfal Sep 9
Shush
0xBbBD1B0780d8B58DDEfa37B3C4cea3835a9cc023-1780122920355 Sep 8
Jordan is near…
EasyGoingA Sep 8
Does anyone else ever worry when the top holders you’re betting against are up A TON in polymarket?!?
Shilu45 Sep 8
You should buy Oct. Because of elections in Israel
Car Sep 7
WAR
GAMBLEMAX Sep 6
Largest surprise, military-wide readiness exercise since October 7th massacre involving the entire IDF: IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir launched a surprise, military-wide readiness exercise involving the entire IDF- from the Air Force and special forces to the General Staff. The timing, just before the Jewish holidays. IDF's Zamir has made it clear: readiness for a surprise attack a top priority.
5038813185 Sep 5
Aug 31 is already over. 🤡🤡 However there is always a chance, with CNN claiming Iran missiles at US ships recently and Jewish holidays coming up soon. US would want to TACO but Iran likely won't let them.
yungsoleimani Sep 4
sorry not sorry man
yungsoleimani Sep 3
yopp
Konfucious Sep 3
Mate literally just read the entire rules section, and look when the market was created. Also dont use AI só much, it’s wrong often.
12beduins Sep 3
🤡 🤡 🤡
12beduins Sep 3
🤡
0xD9B9de38B5Af0367F350b0f24AD5F48404e903B8-1764226192402 Sep 3
This dispute concerns the Polymarket market “Israel × Iran ceasefire continues through…”, which is priced at 100% YES as of August 31. This does not match the rules or the verified events. The ceasefire ends if either Israel or Iran conducts a qualifying military action. Qualifying actions include air strikes and surface‑to‑surface missile launches, and the rules clearly state that interception does not matter — the launch itself qualifies. These qualifying actions already happened after market creation: • March 18, 2026 – Iran → Israel: Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Israel. Ballistic missiles are explicitly defined as qualifying surface‑to‑surface missile strikes. • March 22–27, 2026 – Israel → Iran: Israel carried out multiple airstrikes inside Iran, including strikes in Tehran and at a uranium facility in Yazd. Airstrikes are explicitly listed as qualifying military actions. Both governments confirmed these events, and they were consistently reported by credible outlets such as Reuters, AP, BBC, and Al Jazeera. Since qualifying actions occurred from both sides, the ceasefire is no longer in effect. Therefore, the market cannot resolve to YES and must resolve to NO under the stated rules.
52centis Sep 3
Could you please tell me what date these mutual launches were? Are there any news links?
0xD9B9de38B5Af0367F350b0f24AD5F48404e903B8-1764226192402 Sep 3
It does not make sense for this market to be priced at 100% YES on August 31st. According to the market rules, even a single qualifying military action between Israel and Iran ends the ceasefire and forces a NO resolution. Both countries have already carried out qualifying actions: Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Israel, and Israel conducted airstrikes inside Iran. These events are confirmed by both governments and credible news sources. Because qualifying actions have clearly occurred, the ceasefire is no longer in effect. A 100% YES price therefore does not reflect the rules or the documented events. It is likely caused by traders misunderstanding the rules or assuming intercepted missiles do not count, even though the rules explicitly state that the launch itself qualifies. Conclusion: The current 100% YES pricing is not aligned with the market rules. Under those rules, the market should resolve to NO.
0xD9B9de38B5Af0367F350b0f24AD5F48404e903B8-1764226192402 Sep 3
Based on the market rules and verified events, this market should resolve to NO. A qualifying military action has already occurred between Israel and Iran after the market’s creation, which ends the ceasefire. Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Israeli territory. Ballistic missiles are explicitly defined as surface‑to‑surface missile strikes. Even if intercepted, the launch itself qualifies because it was directly aimed at Israel. Israel also carried out airstrikes inside Iran. Airstrikes are explicitly listed as qualifying military actions, and these strikes impacted Iranian territory. Both governments and multiple credible outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) confirmed these events. The rules state that the ceasefire ends if either country conducts a qualifying military action. Since qualifying actions occurred from both sides, the ceasefire is no longer in effect. Conclusion: The conditions for a YES resolution are not met. The market should resolve to NO.
cerco Sep 2
BREAKING: Netanyahu says Israel is working to bring down the Iranian regime and could attack Iran at any moment.
Tangovicious Sep 2
Regarding if august 31 is yes or no?
fudc Sep 2
The details are under review.
cerco Sep 2
IDF: Following the sirens that sounded a short while ago regarding a hostile aircraft infiltration in several areas in northern Israel, interceptors were launched toward a suspicious aerial target that likely crossed from Lebanon into Israeli territory. The interception results are under review. No injuries were reported. Missile and rocket alerts were activated due to the interception attempts.
cerco Sep 2
IDF: Initial report - Sirens regarding a hostile aircraft infiltration were sounded in the area of Kfar Yuval. The details are under review.
pink.impala Sep 1
The Russian people stand in solidarity with Iranians as they defend their interests - President Vladimir Putin
Tangovicious Sep 1
Don't bother, you can't reason with low-IQ antisemites.
0x0D20e0aB6b1a817c9e6Db622A0fa2B45ef0930EA-1768520567855 Sep 1
What???
12beduins Aug 31
If the nazis had been antisemites the holocaust would have never happened, let that sink in!
Shilu45 Aug 31
Yes like US Iran you got rigged today 🤣🤣😅
Shilu45 Aug 31
Dump 🤡🤡
0x4C6A68AD49C44da012c760893267EEcB135997BE-1775679106556 Aug 31
YES
SIMOMEGA Aug 31
not that i disagree with you but why do u still have positions if so?
Tangovicious Aug 31
Hopefully the nos will get lots of great wins today.
merlini Aug 31
No wins today?
ibm322 Aug 31
of course!Like the june 15 agreed peace deal that is definetly not a scam!Polymarket is a scam ppl
