This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
24H VOLUME
$63.8K
LIQUIDITY
$63.8K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
hdtomo 4h ago
No party, let alone incumbant, has reversed a +9 (or, holistically, +13) generic ballot poll in US history, precedent if anything argues that it will only exacerbate. Odds are closer to 80-85% and the house is essentially 99% bar a deeply exogenous event. America's anti-Trump stance on Iran indicates that the most common cause for such a rare reversal is also acting against him.
Norco66 22h ago
😂😂😂 I would sell if i were you
ItsRigg3d Sep 16
The left is collapsing in Europe. Delulu hopium is high with you people.
0x8C0d449a67DD6b5D8f5D687929D7141854B3d87A-1774273260928 Sep 16
The only confused people are the insecure closeted gay men in the Republican Party. The only one braking the law is the current administration and its idiotic voters storming the capitol. Not a single democratic voter that I know supports unregulated borders and neither do any of the politicians (Biden deported over 270k in his last year in office btw). The most American thing is to support peoples freedom which is currently being suppressed. Not a single Democratic politician is a communist and only a small handful are democratic socialists that are not even remotely communist. The only voters that are radical are those threatening other Americans with violence. Never vote agin.🤡
HDTomo-229 Sep 15
I take a 3 hour nap and suddenly the Democrats are starting to be priced correctly wtf happened
NoiseC Sep 15
Gas below $3!
flybat Sep 15
this is aging really well.
flybat Sep 15
holy shit. bottoms falling out. oil skyrocketing, Iran is a disaster, Canada and Europe are signing deals and making us look dumb. GOP got nothing but racist tropes and conspiracies. it's fucking over.
hdtomo Sep 14
GTA 6, 56 Dems in the Senate, Avengers Doomsday
hdtomo Sep 14
Said nobody ever
sibuscus Sep 12
Unfortunately democrats
0xC9DB841A167197796503AB6303f49105BD1CAbF7-1779325295104 Sep 9
That's all you Maga morons worry about. The color of people's skin and what someone's private parts look like. Maga is done in November. I wonder if you'll still protect pedophiles then?
Nana65hi Sep 9
Soon
darkwight Sep 8
This comment might make sense to someone who actually believes brown people are the true source of your economic issues…. Billionaires paid a lot of money to get you to believe that nonsense. They’re very satisfied that their investment is going so well.
hdtomo Sep 2
Biden can handle a major global financial event without recession and he's got dementia, but Trump can lose a war, double the deficit while somehow hurting the economy, reduce government efficiency, perform hundreds of insider trades, on top of being a total dick and eroding democracy and it's just "b-b-but Trump bad!"
KEFE Sep 2
my man has zero dollars riding on this, but for whatever reason still seems to be invested into this bet...
huobi5054 Sep 1
democrats pleeease
0x42ac8575C599C7eaa2bE37db17A8038ECa79cE8B-1779213257151 Sep 1
Just a reminder Democrats have no policies and will 100% return America to the Biden era inflation / open borders / increased crime all while telling you that you're supposed to be happy you're being replaced by millions of foreigners. Clowns all of you. "B-b-but Trump bad, Iran war... 🥺" You guys look ret4rded. Trump already proved he can get gas below $3 in 40 states and once the war ceases it'll go back down but you guys would rather we flood our borders again and grant mass amnesty to people who don't follow our entry laws.
0x42ac8575C599C7eaa2bE37db17A8038ECa79cE8B-1779213257151 Sep 1
Are you mentally challenged? Democrats are the worst thing to ever happen to America. You're all gender confused, anti-law, anti-border, anti-america, communist, and radical. Never vote again 🤡 you have no reason to convince anyone to vote Democrat because Democrats couldn't even keep the border secure under Biden. You're a joke
0xfF2c1a68C122f721B7A632d85c5EeA40534362f0-1780394350837 Aug 27
Nate silver model prediction showing dems with a 57% of winning moved the markets since he is given credit for being a knowledgeable stats based modeler.
valetecaolho Aug 23
That is the beauty of markets I suppose. Whales will only be whales if they continue to make money. If, in this specific case they happen to be taking the wrong side of the bet....
hdtomo Aug 22
This fuckery about keeping it close for the Republicans because some whales can't wrap their heads around the Democrats winning needs to stop. It happened to Texas for 8 months too.
0x24d6e74fA73eA49E0A9E7fcAA6A56FD4188B6e3c-1760002460830 Aug 21
Democrats
dPredictor Aug 17
headline 'Federal Court Blocks U.S. Postal Service from Implementing Executive Order Restricting Mail Voting'
dPredictor Aug 17
because
dPredictor Aug 17
look at this headline "Federal Court Blocks U.S. Postal Service from Implementing Executive Order Restricting Mail Voting" Trump's Attempt to block mail-in votes failed and the marked moved acordingly (Republicans are more likely to be old retired folks who don't work for a living and can go vote in person)
0x8e8A223f81908A76E4c2fa0144F3268D4fA5a37e-1778844965694 Aug 17
moron, keep talking and show people ehu they need to vote you idiots to the curb
67Shadow Aug 17
This is the real answer.
Magician5342 Aug 15
Hw
GiaPet17 Aug 14
I think their odds are correct...I had the cross happening 3rd week of September...Vote Democrats.
flybat Aug 14
Nate Silver forecast came out
snoopy2322 Aug 14
At around 8am a federal judge issued a national wide rulling on a suit brought by the women's league in Massachusetts against parts of trumps election integrity order, specifically a part of the order that directs the postmaster to withhold mail in ballots from states that dont turn over voter rolls. The trump administration asked the Supreme Court to take up the case and markets reacted accordingly.
0xb63dfbD40F3C32289DE697f269de7D45D89d3F33-1764185654954 Aug 13
Not if they exposed as dr fauci's psychopaths.
nichcagefan Aug 13
Texas, Michigan, and Alaska are all trending lean dem from coin flip in the last few days
MartonMagyar Aug 13
i mean a socialist candidate with 96% chance to win just lost in WI so it doesnt seem like a big deal r
aleksandmoney Aug 13
manipulate
mcpetrus Aug 13
Why did this swing from 55–45 for the Republicans to 53–47 for the Democrats within a single day?
aleksandmoney Aug 10
Hi
aleksandmoney Aug 10
Republicans😎
0xAa4Ba374cDCd7CB79f5C5BA8cbCf7910eBeeBa09-1720986535448 Aug 7
Planning on doing the same lol
JJ89 Aug 6
Nate Silver is a clown who is not very good at his job, look at his coverage of the last elections.
0x61d40726d2b4c13f7F77E8D7F91ca9747974d00E-1778967010603 Aug 3
Betting on Republicans, so if I lose, I'm still happy
hyper-liquid-xyz Aug 1
Iran is allegedly doing cyberattack in US water facilities. Trump denies that they are running out of munitions but more and more US military are telling him this - Hormuz Letter, X.
hyper-liquid-xyz Aug 1
US surrender to Iran state in 3, 2, 1...
timebrotime Aug 1
REP Forever😍
aleksandmoney Aug 1
😄😄😄 unrealistic
aleksandmoney Jul 31
😑
White.Monster Jul 31
Gut feeling dems take it
RCRVNJ Jul 23
appen already
345fg8 Jul 15
go
